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Paul left South Africa in 1994 and joined
Yorkton Securities in Toronto as a stockbroker in 1995. He
joined Rick Rule’s Global Resource Investments in Carlsbad,
California in 1996.
In 1998 Paul introduced his original
thesis that the gold price in US dollars is driven by the US
dollar exchange rate, and that traditional commodity style
analyses would not yield predictive results when applied to
gold. He showed that a dollar-only view of the gold market is
inadequate: understanding the gold price requires a global view,
incorporating exchange rates across many currencies. This line
of thinking is now ubiquitously accepted.
In 2003 Paul went further, showing that
the price of gold in US dollars is tightly correlated to the
expansion of US monetary aggregates (M3) and that an analysis of
gold as money not only explains the gold price from 1971 to the
present, but also predicts that the gold price would exceed
$1,000 an ounce.
In November 2002, Paul left the brokerage
industry and became Doug Casey’s co-editor of the
International Speculator
newsletter.
Paul began his own newsletter in November
2003. This newsletter was a running commentary of the companies
Paul personally invested in and the reasons why. Those companies
were generally highly speculative junior mining stocks, and most
were Canadian and traded on Canadian exchanges. At the same time
Paul also began writing a weekly market commentary.
The credit crisis that began in the summer
of 2007 changed Paul’s investment outlook to such an extent that
he sold the bulk of his speculative investments in 2008. The
newsletter’s existing format was no longer viable and it was
taken over by Brent Cook, Paul’s associate. Brent is an
exploration geologist who will continue to look for investment
opportunities in the mineral exploration sector.
Paul van Eeden now only writes a weekly
market
commentary.
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